Introduction

The FIFA World Ranking is a system used to rank national football teams based on their game results. This ranking system, first introduced in December 1992, uses the Elo rating system to calculate points awarded for matches. The primary purpose of the rankings is to provide a reliable measure of the relative strength of national teams over time, aiding in seeding for tournaments and fostering a competitive environment in international football.

The Calculation Method

The current FIFA ranking system, implemented in August 2018, is based on the Elo rating system, which is also used in chess. Points are added or subtracted from a team’s total after each match based on several factors:

• Match Result: A win, draw, or loss determines the base points added or subtracted.
• Match Importance: Different weights are given to friendly matches, qualifiers, and tournament finals.
• Opponent Strength: Points are adjusted based on the relative ranking of the opponent.
• Home or Away: Additional points are awarded for away wins due to the perceived difficulty.
  

Example Calculation

Let’s consider an example where Team A (ranked 20th) plays against Team B (ranked 40th) in a World Cup qualifier:

Scenario	Points Awarded
Team A wins	+15 points
Team B wins	+30 points
Draw	+10 points to both teams

Historical Context

The FIFA ranking system has undergone several changes to address criticisms. Initially, it was a simple points-based system, but it was later adjusted to better reflect team strengths. The adoption of the Elo system in 2018 aimed to enhance accuracy by considering various match factors and their importance. FIFA’s formula for calculating the points (P) a team gains from a match has evolved over the years. Below is an explanation of the method used between July 2006 and July 2018, followed by the updated method from August 2018 onwards.

Detailed Calculation Formula and Impact of Match Types

Between July 2006 and July 2018

P= M×I×T×C×100

Using the following factors:

• M (Match Result): Points awarded based on the match outcome:
  • 3 points for a win
  • 2 points for a win in a penalty shootout
  • 1 point for a draw or a loss in a penalty shootout
  • 0 points for a loss
• I (Importance of Match): Multiplier reflecting the significance of the match:
  • 1.0 for a friendly match or small tournament
  • 2.5 for World Cup or continental qualifiers
  • 3.0 for continental finals and the Confederations Cup
  • 4.0 for the World Cup finals
• T (Strength of Opponent): Value based on the opponent’s ranking:
  • T=(200−opponent’s rank100)T = \left( \frac{200 – \text{opponent’s rank}}{100} \right)T=(100200−opponent’s rank​)
  • For opponents ranked below 150th, the value is set to 0.5
• C (Confederation Strength): Average coefficient of the two confederations involved:
  • UEFA (Europe): 1.00
  • CONMEBOL (South America): 1.00
  • AFC (Asia): 0.85
  • CAF (Africa): 0.85
  • CONCACAF (North and Central America and the Caribbean): 0.85
  • OFC (Oceania): 0.85

Since August 2018

The updated FIFA ranking system, implemented in August 2018, uses an Elo-based method:

P=P_before​+ I×(R−R_a​)

Where:

• P_before​: Points before the match
• I (Importance of Match): Multiplier for match significance:
  • 5 for a friendly match outside the international calendar
  • 10 for a friendly match within the international calendar
  • 15 for group stage matches of UEFA and CONCACAF Nations League
  • 25 for placement matches and finals of Nations League and qualification matches for continental or World Cup competitions
  • 35 for continental competition matches up to the round of 16
  • 40 for continental competition matches from quarter-finals onward, and all Confederations Cup matches
  • 50 for World Cup finals up to the round of 16
  • 60 for World Cup finals from quarter-finals onward
• R (Match Result): Points based on the match result:
  • 1 point for a win
  • 0.75 points for a win in a penalty shootout
  • 0.5 points for a draw
  • 0.5 points for a loss in a penalty shootout
  • 0 points for a loss
• R_a (Expected Result): Expected result calculated as : R_a = 1/(10^–dv/600 + 1)
  • ‘dv‘ is the difference in points between the two teams (Team A’s points – Team B’s points)

Example :

In a continental qualification match where Team A (1300 points) plays Team B (1500 points), the points change as follows :

Scenario	Team A	Team B
Win for Team A	+17.00	-17.00
Draw	+5.00	-5.00
Win for Team B	-7.00	+7.00

Historical Context and Records

• Longest at Number 1: Brazil holds the record for the longest cumulative time at the top, spending 4,731 days as the highest-ranked team.
• Highest Points Total: The highest points total achieved under the current system is by Germany, with 1,682 points in 2014.
• Number of Teams: The ranking includes 211 member associations of FIFA.
• Oldest System: The ranking was introduced in December 1992 and has seen several revamps to improve accuracy and fairness.

Interesting Facts

• Poland’s Strategy: Poland strategically played only lower-ranked teams and friendly matches to climb higher in the FIFA rankings, helping them secure favorable seedings in major tournaments. This strategy allowed them to be in Pot 1 for the World Cup draw in 2018, resulting in a group with Colombia, Senegal, and Japan​ .
• Historical Dominance: Brazil dominated the rankings from July 1994 to 2007, interrupted only briefly by France in 2001-2002 due to their World Cup 1998 and Euro 2000 victories. Spain took over from 2008 to 2013, backed by their Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, and Euro 2012 wins.

Why FIFA Rankings Matter

The FIFA rankings are crucial for several reasons:

• Tournament Seeding: Rankings determine seedings for major tournaments, influencing group stage draws and match fixtures.
• Comparative Measure: They provide a comparative measure of team performance over time, allowing for a standardized assessment of progress and competitiveness.
• Strategic Planning: Teams can use the rankings to plan friendly matches and competitions strategically to improve their standing.

Conclusion

The FIFA ranking system is a dynamic and complex model that takes into account multiple factors to ensure a fair representation of team strengths. Understanding this system helps fans and analysts appreciate the efforts teams make to climb the rankings and the strategic decisions involved in maintaining or improving their positions. The system’s evolution and the historical context of its implementation provide a deeper insight into international football’s competitive landscape.